Wednesday, January 9, 2019

From Container Ships to Gas Carriers and Tankers - Analysts Predict the Future Values

A Look at the Various Types of Merchant Ships Likely Cost Prices Over the Next Year
Shipping News Feature
WORLDWIDE – This week the analysts at ship pricing firm VesselsValue (VV) have been taking their New Year look in the crystal ball to predict the best type of vessel class for investors to opt for in 2019/20. The study to arrive at such conclusions involves a plethora of factors when assessing each vessel class and age and subscribers to the VV website can take a close look at the assessment of individual merchant vessel types from tankers and container ships to gas carriers and more.

So what are predicted to be the best investments on the water in the coming months according to these predictions? Heading the list are container ships which have dominated the buying opportunities over the past several quarters, and many have taken advantage of this trend to make carefully informed purchases in this space. Decade old Panamax container vessels are shown to represent the strongest buying opportunity in the current forecast.

Despite a lower number of vessels heading for the breakers yards as recycling activity slowed, VV says the global container market balance has tightened in 2018. Furthermore, declining speed to reduce costs has meant more tonnage on the water at any given time and this has been an important factor this year with these ‘slower steaming’ speeds fully expected to be the new normal.

Container vessel second hand values increased during the first half of the year but have since shown a softer development for most sizes. Newbuilding prices have been increasing year to date for the feeder vessels and the recent ordering activity is slowly improving shipyards forward books. Despite the increase in new orders, the global order book for all shipping segments is still at low levels as deliveries from yards have outpaced new orders being placed.

Gas carriers are also worth considering as Q3 earnings for VLGCs and Midsize tonnage have been improving on the base of higher LPG volumes out of the US and a more active ammonia market. Higher LPG imports to Europe and a strong Indian market have supported Medium Gas Carriers (MGCs) and Handysizes too. The pressurised market remains very strong. Petrochemical trades are active to Asia and supported by higher US trade, but import to Europe is down, as economic activity has slowed.

The supply and demand balance for VLGCs has been improving, and VV opines this will be reflected in higher numbers for vessels. Older units are priced more competitively, with an expected upside of about 30% on a 20 year old unit by the start of 2020. MGCs also are named as representing a strong buying opportunity. MGCs of 35,000 cubic metres are also an attractive option. A 15 year old vessel could see a boost of almost 50% percent over the next year according to the experts.

For serious investors in the maritime sector a look at the comprehensive analysis of the current and likely future prices of ships of interest, VesselValue provides a useful tool to support any such decisions.